Novorizontino look like the stronger side going into this Serie B fixture, and the Draw No Bet market is particularly attractive because it protects the stake if the match finishes level. Novorizontino currently sit 3rd in Série B with a 13-7-6 record from 26 matches and 46 points, averaging 1.77 points per game. They have scored 44 goals while conceding only 23, giving them an excellent +21 goal difference. Botafogo-SP, in comparison, are 15th with an 8-7-11 record, 31 points and a neutral 29-29 goal difference. Novorizontino's away record is another major reason to favour them with draw protection. They are 5-5-3 away from home this season, meaning they have avoided defeat in 10 of their 13 away league games — approximately 77%. They have collected 20 away points and have lost only three times on the road.

Their current form is even more impressive. Novorizontino have won four consecutive league matches:

3-0 vs América Mineiro
4-1 away vs Athletic Club
2-1 vs Sport Recife
3-1 vs Avaí

That is 12 goals scored and only three conceded across four straight victories. Their latest 3-1 win over Avaí confirmed that the strong run has continued into September. Botafogo-SP are moving in the opposite direction. Their last four league matches have produced a 1-1 draw against Criciúma followed by three consecutive defeats: 0-3 against Atlético Goianiense, 1-2 against Cuiabá and 0-1 against Náutico. They have therefore taken only one point from their last four matches and scored just two goals during that period. The league numbers also underline the difference between the teams. Novorizontino are averaging 1.69 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded per game, while Botafogo-SP average just 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Novorizontino therefore have both the stronger attack and stronger defence across the season. The recent head-to-head record also favours Novorizontino. They won the first league meeting this season 1-0, and across the five most recent recorded meetings Botafogo-SP have failed to beat them, with Novorizontino winning three and the other two ending in draws. Statistical models also lean towards Novorizontino. CompactStats gives approximately 43% probability to a Novorizontino victory, 28% to the draw and only 29% to Botafogo-SP. That means the two outcomes that do not lose a Novorizontino Draw No Bet — win or draw — account for roughly 71% of the model distribution. Another model has Novorizontino's outright-win probability close to 49%. This is where Draw No Bet becomes particularly useful. Current prices around 1.84 mean a Novorizontino victory pays the full return, while a draw simply refunds the stake

Bristol City vs Lincoln City in EFL Cup

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