France : Ligue 1 - Strasbourg vs Monaco

Monaco is one of the higher-odds selections, but their opening form gives the price a genuine statistical argument. Monaco have won all three Ligue 1 games:

Le Havre 0-1 Monaco
Monaco 2-0 Marseille
PSG 1-2 Monaco

That gives them:
3 games
3 wins
100% win rate
5 goals scored
1 conceded
2 clean sheets
2/2 away wins

The away numbers are particularly relevant because Monaco have already gone to PSG and won. Strasbourg have also shown attacking quality, so this is not an easy opponent. Their three league results are:

Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Strasbourg 2-1 Lens
Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg

Strasbourg have therefore scored eight goals, but they have also conceded seven and have conceded in every league match. The contrast is interesting: Monaco have conceded only once all season, whereas Strasbourg have conceded seven times in three games. Strasbourg's 6-2 victory demonstrates why Monaco at odds above 2.00 carries far more risk than NEC or Freiburg, but a team with a perfect 3/3 record, two away wins and a 5-1 goal difference is difficult to dismiss at that kind of price. This is a value play rather than a safety play.