England : Premier League - Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

This one has one of the clearest statistical arguments on the entire card. Aston Villa's Premier League record after three matches is 0-1-2 with a 0-5 goal difference. They have literally not scored a league goal yet.

That means:
3 league games
0 goals scored
0.00 goals per game
2/3 matches under 2.5 goals

Even more strikingly, Villa generated only one shot on target across their first three Premier League games. Their latest league match ended 0-0 against Hull. Nottingham Forest's most recent match was also a 0-0 draw against Tottenham. Forest have scored only twice across their opening three league fixtures, and two of those three matches have stayed under 2.5 goals.

Combined:
Villa under 2.5: 2/3
Forest under 2.5: 2/3
Combined hit rate: 4/6 = 66.7%

Villa + Forest have produced only two league goals between them offensively across six team-games, with Villa accounting for zero of them. Villa did score three in Europe against Club Brugge during the week, which is the obvious warning sign, so their attack may be beginning to wake up. But purely from Premier League evidence, the under 2.5 line around 1.80 is supported by very strong early-season attacking and goal-total numbers.