England : Championship - Southampton vs Bristol City

The strongest argument for Southampton is not simply their overall record – it is what they have done at St Mary’s. Southampton are 3-2-1 in the Championship with 14 goals scored and seven conceded. They have scored in all six league matches and are unbeaten across their last five league games after losing the opener. But at home, the numbers are significantly stronger:

Southampton 3-1 Stoke
Southampton 5-1 Millwall
Southampton 3-1 Swansea

That is three home league games, three wins, 11 goals scored and only three conceded. Southampton are therefore averaging 3.67 goals per home game and have scored at least three goals in 3/3 home league matches. Every home victory has also come by at least two goals. Bristol City deserve respect because they have found form themselves, with successive league wins over Portsmouth, Preston and Burnley. Their last two confirmed league away matches ended in 3-1 and 2-1 victories, so this is definitely not a free Southampton win. However, Southampton's 100% home win rate and 11-3 home goal difference are exceptional numbers. This selection is therefore based primarily on the major difference between Southampton's home performance and their overall record rather than assuming Bristol are a weak side.