Why Leeds United’s Raphinha is a target for Barcelona, Arsenal & Tottenham

After two excellent seasons with Leeds United, Raphinha looks set to leave Elland Road this summer. During his time in Yorkshire, the 25-year-old has established himself as the starting right-winger in Brazil’s national team and his form has caught the attention of many top clubs. Liverpool were strongly linked to him last summer but Leeds had no interest in allowing their star attacker to leave after just one season. This time around, it feels inevitable that they will sanction a sale, although Liverpool seems unlikely to be the destination for the winger.  

Barcelona emerged as favourites for his signature a few months ago and it seemed almost a certainty that he would sign for the Catalan giants soon after the transfer window opened. However, Barcelona’s well-documented financial issues have meant that no bid has been forthcoming. This has opened the door to interest from North London rivals, Arsenal and Tottenham.  

Leeds managed to avoid relegation to the Championship, with the Brazilian putting on an excellent performance on the final day as he won and scored a penalty to beat Brentford 2-1 whilst Burnley lost to Newcastle. The Whites staying in the division ensured that they won’t lose their number 10 for a cut-price fee. However, the stats show that Raphinha is worth the £60million fee that Leeds would demand for their star man. Here’s the breakdown of what he brought to their team last season:  

 

Goal threat 

Raphinha has scored 17 Premier League goals since moving to England at the end of the summer window in 2020. 11 of those goals came in 21/22, with four being penalties. When considering how poor Leeds were as a team last season, Raphinha beating his non-penalty goalscoring performance from the previous season - where they finished ninth - emphasises how good his individual performance was. Without him, Leeds would surely have gone down with a whimper.  

When it comes to the rate of scoring, Raphinha’s non-penalty goals came a little under a rate of one in every four, as he scored 0.22 non-penalty goals per 90. That was a shade under his expectation, as if he’d matched his xG of 0.25 per 90 then his rate would have been exactly at one in four. That’s very impressive for a side that were almost relegated. In fact, his non-penalty xG per 90 was exactly the same as Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, who was in a far superior team. It’s very easy to see Raphinha’s output scaling up significantly in a much stronger team.  

 

Chance creation 

When it comes to creating goals, Raphinha hasn’t been a prolific assister for Leeds, particularly last season, where he only made three assists.  

However, assists are a notoriously poor metric when it comes to assessing a player’s creativity. That’s due to the fact that it relies upon the shot taker to conver the pass into a goal for it to b counted as an assist. Hence, expected assists is a better metric to use in this regard as that gives values to the quality of chances created by any pass, rather than whether it ended up being a goal or not.  

In Raphinha’s case, his three assists at 0.09 per 90 ranked in the 18th percentile for attacking midfielders and wingers in Europe. However, he was far more creative than that and was badly let down by the poor finishing of his teammates. This is shown by the fact that his expected assists totaled 6.8 and came at a rate of 0.21 per 90, which ranked him in the 69th percentile. Again, this is highly impressive given that Raphinha was playing for a relegation battling team.  

 

Playmaking 

Raphinha is not just a threat when it comes to goal involvements though. For Leeds, he has been their primary playmaker ever since he joined the club. Although his involvement in play could have been a little higher (he was in the 58th percentile for passes per 90), he progress the ball by passing more than all but 10% of attacking midfielders and wingers in Europe.  

This emphasises how direct Raphinha was last season and how much Leeds relied on him to get the ball into dangerous areas. It’s also notable that his passing accuracy % was an extremely low 63.8%, which put him in the fourth percentile for the metric. This was because he was attempting a lot of very ambitious passes as - in many games - Leeds’ attacking process was essentially ‘give the ball to Raphinha’. At a top club, he would likely dial down his directness a little, as he would  not be leaned on quite so much to make something happen. 

As well as his direct passing, the 25-year-old would look to get the ball into dangerous areas by dribbling and taking on opponents. His 4.6 dribbles attempted per 90 put him in the 88th percentile for the metric, showing that he is an attacker who loves to beat opponents. He would often look to do so at speed, using stepovers and quick changes of direction to attempt to get to the byline for a cutback.  

 

Out-of-possession intensity 

Finally, almost all top teams in modern football commit to a degree of high pressing. Anybody who sings the Brazilian is getting a very willing presser who will slot into even the most intense of out-of-possession systems, having done so for Leeds.  

At Elland Road, Raphinha first had to play Marcelo Bielsa’s notorious man-marking system, which required him to follow his designated opponent anywhere on the pitch in order to win the ball back. When Bielsa was sacked, Leeds moved to bring in Jesse Marsch, who was famous for the intense ball-oriented pressing system made famous by the Red Bull stable.  

Raphinha’s 17.72 pressures per 90 rank him in the 72nd percentile for the metric. However, it should be said that despite his willingness to sprint out to any opponent don’t necessarily make him a highly effective presser, as he can be fairly easily beaten by a defender comfortable with the ball at their feet. Notably though, it was some excellent pressing from Joe Gelhardt & Raphinha which led to Leeds winning the ball in the build-up to the penalty he scored on the final day of the Premier League season.  

 

Will anybody pay the money Leeds want? 

As mentioned earlier, the Whites want big money for their star player. It’s not hard to see why, given how important he was for them last season. Regardless of the fee they bring in, it won’t be possible for them to recruit a player of comparable quality, given their position in the table. Thus, they must get the best fee they can manage. Also, it’s rare to find a player like Raphinha, who offers the dual threa of goals and creativity, as well as being an excellent ball progressor. Those kinds of player do not come cheap. 

It seems that Barcelona won’t pay a fee of £60million plus. However, both Arsenal and Spurs have the deep pockets that comes with being a one of the Premier League’s top six these days. With those two in the mix, Leeds will hope to kick off a bidding war. The question may be whether the Brazilian will only countenance a move to Spain. If so, Leeds may have to try and push the Catalan club as high as they can go, whilst also lowering their asking price.