Weekend tips: Community Shield and Championship action

The Nap

The FA Community Shield is the first chance that English clubs get to get their hands on silverware and this year’s renewal has a bit of a different feel to it, not least because it has been brought forward slightly as the new Premier League season is due to get underway on August 5.

In another twist, the 100th edition of the season’s traditional ‘curtain raiser’ will be hosted at the King Power Stadium, as the UEFA Women’s EURO 2022 Final is scheduled to take place at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.

The two teams battling for silverware need no introduction. Manchester City have just won their fourth Premier League title in five seasons and were such a joy to watch last term, having 68.5% of the ball on average and plundering 96 goals. They’ve also added the brilliant Erling Haaland, a striker who should add another dimension to their play.

Haaland is just 22 but looks the real deal and it is going to be fascinating to watch how he fares in the most exciting league in the world. Just how will all the elements of his game fare? Will he consistently get balls over the top to run on to with that electric pace or will teams defend deep to try and counter the threat of his speed?

2022/23 is obviously a huge season for Jack Grealish too, who didn’t set the world alight last season in terms of goals or assists. Kevin De Bruyne was consistently City’s star attraction in the middle of the park last term but there will be an expectation that the £100m man from Birmingham, who has recently inked a sponsorship deal with Gucci, contributes a lot more.

Opponents Liverpool almost pulled off a historic quadruple, falling just short in the Champions League final and finishing a point behind eventual winners Manchester City in the league. It is worth noting that their tally of 92 points would have been good enough to win the Premier League in 24 of the last 30 seasons.

They’ve managed to hold on to Mo Salah, and added Darwin Nunez to their squad after losing Sadio Mane. Crucially boss Jurgen Klopp has also signed a new deal until 2026, and Liverpool will have a point to prove here against a team they went head to head with for much of last season.

The smart play on Saturday could be on the draw. The teams met three times last season, and both league encounters ended 2-2. Liverpool edged a classic FA Cup semi-final 3-2 but it is obvious there isn’t much between the teams, who are arguably the best in Europe at the moment.

It could be another breathless encounter between two teams who will want to set down an early marker ahead of another big season, but given how their respective squads match up the draw is certainly worth a go here at 13/5.

The Nap – Liverpool and Manchester City to draw at 13/5 (Unibet)

 

Value Tip

The EFL Championship returns this weekend, and the bookies are not 100% sure who should actually be favourite to lift the title. Norwich City have been installed as tentative betting favourites, but you can get 6/1 about the Canaries winning the league if you shop around while Watford are a top price 7/1 with West Brom and Middlesbrough 9s and 10/1 respectively.

West Brom travel to Middlesbrough for Saturday’s late televised game, and the Baggies may be worth rowing in with at 5/2.

Having missed out on a play-off place earlier this year, Boro under Chris Wilder will be keen to launch a push for promotion in the coming months.

However the Baggies will have promotion back to the Premier League in mind themselves after a very underwhelming campaign last year. They’ve trimmed their squad by releasing a slew of players, but brought in quality additions Okay Yokuslu, Jed Wallace and John Swift and there’s hope that boss Steve Bruce can get them back to the promised land.

Defensively, West Brom were very, very strong last season. I expect them to be exactly the same under Bruce and so a 1-0 away win on Teesside looks a tempting shout at 9/1.

Value Tip – West Brom to win 1-0 at 9/1 (Betfair/Coral/Paddy Power)

 

First Goal Flutter 

Punters traditionally love to get stuck into the Premier League top goalscorer market antepost, and there are few surprises at the top of the betting this season.

Mo Salah is a 5/1 shout and should be there or thereabouts again. The Egyptian King won Golden Boot alongside Son Heung-Min last season, with both men finishing with 23 goals from 35 games.

He will be Liverpool’s focal point again this season, while those who like a spot of value might want to look twice at Son at 16s.

Harry Kane is 6/1 generally and that price looks appealing. The narrative that Kane had a poor 2021/22 campaign is a bit misleading. The England striker managed to score 17 goals after a sluggish start, and his form and goal ratio certainly improved following Antonio Conte's arrival at the club.

At 28 he should be at the peak of his powers, but one wonders if the World Cup in November might be a distraction?

Haaland is a 3/1 favourite and even though this is based on potential (given he has never played in England’s top flight before this season) you get the feeling that price is going to shorten to if starts with a bang.

Haaland has the pace and physicality to be a roaring success, and if he stays fit he should get more chances than you can shake a stick at given how City play.

Staying fit will be key of course. The Norwegian forward missed 16 games across all competitions last season through various injuries and only started 21 of Dortmund’s 34 Bundesliga games.

However, he is a proven goalscorer despite his tender years and found the net on a regular basis during his time in the Bundesliga. Crucially too he won’t be going to the World Cup so

will be able to recharge his batteries in the winter while a lot of his Golden Boot rivals are mixing it up in the sweltering heat of Qatar. With this in mind, 3/1 looks worth a play.

First Goal Flutter - Erling Haaland to be Premier League top goalscorer at 3/1 (bet365/Hills)