The stats that show why Arsenal are signing Gabriel Jesus

Throughout the 21/22 season, centre forward was a clear weak point in Arsenal’s squad. Mikel Arteta and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had a well-publicised fallout, meaning he was stripped of the captaincy, dropped and subsequently transferred to Barcelona. Alexandre Lacazette played as the number nine for the majority of the season and whilst he dovetailed well with players like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard, he was clearly not seen as the long-term option in the position.  

Eddie Nketiah had a late run in the side and offered more goals than the Frenchman but the Arsenal academy product is still quite limited as a striker. Despite him signing a new deal to remain at the club, the Gunners were always going to make him the backup striker and bring in a new first choice.  

It appears that choice will be Gabriel Jesus of Manchester City, with a deal agreed between the two clubs at the weekend. The Brazilian has played a lot of his football over the last season or two in wide areas but he is keen to reestablish himself as a striker, which Arteta’s side are offering him the opportunity to do.  

Here’s why Arsenal were so keen to pay £45million for the 25-year-old.  

 

Consistent goal threat 

Detractors of Jesus may point to the fact that he never managed to break 15 league goals for City, despite playing for the best team in the league. However, that needs context. As mentioned, Jesus has often played out of position, as well as being behind Sergio Aguero in the pecking order for the majority of his time at the club.  

Last season, Jesus’s goalscoring numbers were impressive. He totalled eight league goals but these came at a rate of 0.44 non-penalty goals per 90, which ranks him in the 75th percentile for forwards. He perfectly matched his expected goals in this regard, perhaps suggesting that he isn’t an elite finisher, as top strikers can beat their expectations more often than not but he will likely score more often for Arsenal, as he will be playing centrally and getting in better positions to score than he was for City, where he was often wider.  

 

Link-up 

The key aspect of Lacazette’s period as centre forward in 21/22 was his link-up play. In one match, against Watford, the Frenchman picked up two assists with one-touch back-to-goal play, as Arteta wants his forward line to combine around the edge of their opponent’s penalty area.  

Having played under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City and been drilled in their possession-based style, Jesus should be comfortable with this. To illustrate this, in 21/22, Jesus played 35.65 passes per 90 with an accuracy of 84.4%. This ranked him in the 93rd and 99th percentiles respectively, for each metric. That demonstrates that Jesus is one of the most secure players in possession that they could buy this summer.  

Additionally, the Brazilian made 7.7 touches in the box per 90, which ranked him in the 97th percentile. This is obviously influenced by how dominant City are, meaning he received the ball often in the penalty area. However, it further adds weight to the idea that Jesus is comfortable combining high up the pitch, particularly given that many opponents defend deep against Guardiola’s side, meaning that he was controlling the ball high up and keeping it, despite having a lot of defenders around him.  

 

Pressing 

One of the best aspects of Arteta’s coaching of Arsenal thus far has been their high-pressing work. The Gunners have one of the most aggressive presses in the league, which is particularly important when they face teams higher up the table, when they aren’t the favourites.  

In Jesus, they will have a selfless worker, who would be excellent as the player who leads the press for Arsenal. His pressing stats from last season show that he made 14.92 pressures per 90, which ranked him in the 47th percentile for forwards in this metric. This is obviously just below average but it should be kept in mind that the Brazilian has been playing for the top possession side in the league. That means he would not be able to press the opposition more than most. For him to even rank anywhere near average shows how aggressive he is in looking to win the ball back.  

 

Will he be a success at the Emirates? 

Of course, one never knows for sure with any transfer whether it will be a success or not. However, it feels like this one is as sure a bet as it comes in the Premier League. Jesus has already shown he can cope and score goals at the level and he has played in a similar style to the one his new team plays. He should hit the ground running, giving Arsenal a much needed increase in quality up front.