The five Premier League teams who beat their expected goal difference by the biggest margin

There’s a phrase you’ll often hear in football: “the table never lies.” Of course, over a 38-game league season like the Premier League’s, it’s hard to argue against the fact that those that perform the best will finish top of the pile with the most points and those that deserve relegation will go down at the end of it all.  

However, points don’t really tell the full story. Football is a sport filled with so many variables that luck plays a huge part. The Champions League final is a great example of that as Liverpool outperformed Real Madrid in almost every metric, giving up only two shots against them all match. It was the Spanish side that won 1-0 and took the trophy though. Vinicius Jr buried his team’s only good chance whilst Liverpool couldn’t take theirs. In a league season, there are many games like that, meaning points often don’t show the best ‘performers’. 

Looking back at the Premier League season from 21/22, we can get a different view of some teams performances by looking at expected goals, rather than points or goal difference. Generally teams with high goal difference have performed well and will finish higher up, but through comparing that with a team’s expected goal difference, we can get a view on whether a team ‘deserves’ to have finished where they did in the table or whether they were carried by an excellent season from one player, or perhaps a couple of players.  

Here are the top five teams in the Premier League from the most recent season, according to overperformance of their expected goal difference:  

  

Wolverhampton Wanderers  

Top of the list is Wolves, with a frankly astonishing overperformance of 19.4 goals. Their expected goal difference was -24.4, which was the third-worst in the league. However, they ended up with a goal difference -5.  

That was largely due to the performance of their goalkeeper, Jose Sa, as he conceded 43 goals from an xGA of 60.3. 

However, his performance is even more impressive when considering his stop stopping stats by post-shot xG (a metric which uses goalkeeper positioning, shot velocity and location to predict how likely a shot is to end up as a goal). According to fbref’s post-shot xG, Sa kept out over 9 goals, which is the best individual performance from a goalkeeper this season.  

Until late in the season, Wolves looked like they would challenge for Europe, before they finished mid-table. Without a significant overhaul of their team, they look highly likely to finish lower next season as Sa’s fantastic individual season is highly unlikely to be reproduced.  

  

Leicester City 

It might seem strange to see Leicester here as they had a poor season. The Foxes competed for Champions League spots over the last couple of years, narrowly missing out on both occasions. Meanwhile, this season they finished eighth.  

However, according to their expected goal difference, it could have been worse. They finished the season with a goal difference of +3, which is 13 goals better than the -10.1 they could have finished with according to xG. That would have been the 12th best in the league.  

Whilst Wolves overachieved because of their goalkeeper, Brendan Rodgers’ had some clinical finishing to thank. Jamie Vardy alone scored 5.5 goals more than his expected goals, as he hit 15 goals to 5.5 xG.  

Again, Leicester could be set for a troubling season without strong recruitment.  

  

Liverpool 

Next up, we have the second-place finishers in the table in Liverpool. It’s not too surprising to see a team like Jurgen Klopp’s on this list, since whilst their tactical process is one of the strongest, meaning they create the most chances and concede the least, they also have a squad filled with individual talent at both ends of the pitch. Therefore they take more of their chances and keep out more of the opponent’s than an average side would.  

Overall, Liverpool outperformed their expected goal difference of +55 by 13, giving them a goal difference of 68. Whilst several of their midfielders and forwards did over-perform, Alisson’s post-shot xG overperformance of 4.11 was the best individual performance for the Reds.  

  

Chelsea 

Another elite team on the list is Chelsea. The Blues finished third in the league but were a significant way behind Liverpool and Manchester City. However, their overperformance of their xGD was only a small amount less than Liverpool’s, as they ended the season 11.7 goals better than their expected goal difference of +31.3.  

That was still the third-best in the league, demonstrating they were good value for their final position. The Blues’ overperformance was mostly made up by their forwards as they scored nine goals more than expected. Interestingly, rather than one player overperforming a significant amount like Vardy for Leicester, in Chelsea’s case there are four of five players who finished one or two goals above their expected goals for the season.  

  

Manchester City 

Again, as they have the best players, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the best teams in this list and - of course - Man City have the best players. Other teams in the league should be worried that City are only fifth in this list, suggesting there is more to come. They are the only team with a higher expected goals total than Liverpool and they have a lower expected goals against value as well. That adds up to the best expected goal difference in the division, with +61.9. However, they actually achieved a goal difference of +73.  

Now that they’ve added Erling Haaland ahead of next season, they only seem likely to become more clinical. Watch out Premier League.