Jack Grealish or Mason Mount for England - What do the stats say?

England drew 1-1 with Germany at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena on Tuesday night, as Gareth Southgate’s side came back from 1-0 down to snatch a draw thanks to a late Harry Kane penalty. In the end, England might well have won the game, as a stunning save from Manuel Neuer just a few minutes before the penalty kept Kane from scoring a brace.  

However, to say that England were unlucky in the game wouldn’t feel like a true reflection of what happened, as Germany were comfortably the better side for much of it and the Three Lions lacked threat until Jack Grealish entered the fray in the 70th minute. The former Aston Villa captain seemed to transform England as an attacking force and was at the heart of their fight back. It was his cross which set up Kane for the chance which was so well saved by Neuer.  

The Manchester City attacker’s performance prompted the regular argument during Southgate’s recent years to reappear: ‘Why doesn’t Grealish play more?’  

The answer is that the England manager prefers Mason Mount. The Chelsea man has featured 29 times for his country and been a regular starter since 2020. Meanwhile, Grealish has been a substitute for half of the 22 England appearances he has made.  

Southgate clearly trusts Mount more than Grealish when it comes to tactical discipline but what do the stats say about the two players? Stats 24 have got the lowdown:  

 

Goal threat 

Interestingly, Mount is the bigger goal threat of the two. The Chelsea man scored 11 Premier League goals last season at a rate of 0.34 per 90. That’s compared to Grealish’s three league goals at 0.15 per 90.  

In terms of underlying numbers, Mount still comes out on top as he put up 8.9 expected goals at 0.28 per 90, whilst Grealish accumulated 4.8xG at 0.22 per 90.  

 

Chance creation 

This is a surprising one, as many might presume that Grealish is far superior as a creator. However, the man City paid £100million for last summer had only three Premier League assists last season at a rate of 0.15 per 90. Meanwhile, Mount had ten assists at 0.37 per 90.  

However, this tells us that Chelsea were far more efficient in finishing their chances than City, rather than Mount is better at creating than Grealish. Here’s what the expected assists suggest about the two in terms of creativity:  

Grealish created chances worth 0.29 expected goals per 90, compared to Mount’s 0.24 per 90. That suggests that if Grealish teammates had finished as well as Mount’s he would have had more assists.  

Also, fbref have a metric called ‘shot creating actions’ which gives value to the two actions immediately before the final pass, allowing us to get a better picture of which players are involved in attacking moves ending in shots. Notably, Grealish makes 5.19 of these per 90, with Mount averaging 4.22.  

 

Involvement in ball progression 

In terms of the two player’s involvement for their teams, the two are very similar when it comes to passes per 90, as Grealish made 46.18 passes per 90 in 21/22, whilst Mount made 48.23.  

However, they use the ball quite differently. The Chelsea man is more balanced in whether he progresses the ball by passing (4.71 progressive passes per 90) or by carrying (6.92 progressive carries per 90). Grealish, on the other hand, want to carry the ball as his first instinct. He averages 13.69 progressive carries per 90, whilst he progressed the ball by passing 3.94 times per 90 in 21/22.  

It’s that regular ball carrying from Grealish which really separates the two and makes the City man the player opposition defenders are scared of. As he carries the ball inside from the left wing, he chaos is often caused amongst defences, opening up space for his fellow attackers to exploit.  

 

Pressing 

On the flip side, Mount is far superior as a presser, which seems to be one of the reasons why Southgate prefers the 23-year-old.  

Looking at their pressures per 90 in the Premier League and Champions League, Mount averages 20.71 per 90, whilst Grealish is significantly lower, with 13 per 90.  

 

Will Grealish start against Italy? 

After such a stark difference between England’s performance with and without Grealish against Germany, it seems like the City attacker has to start in the replay of the Euro 2020 final at the weekend, as England face Italy. However, knowing how Southgate has preferred Mount over time, it won’t come as a surprise to see Grealish reduced to a bench role once again. If that is the case, the England manager surely won’t hesitate to turn to Grealish if he needs a gamechanger. He seems to be the best England have in that regard right now.